Sacramento Republicvs
Orange County SC
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 5/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sacramento Republic are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Orange County SC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Orange County SC hold a 4.0-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 59.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.0% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60