GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 3/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sacramento Republic · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

Sacramento Republic are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Monterey Bay are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Sacramento Republic hold a 20.0-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 35.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.8% in the USL Championship, while Sacramento Republic holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Sacramento Republic

Probability

64.8%

Model confidence

64.8%

Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sacramento RepublicDWLDL

GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40

BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Monterey BayLLDLL

GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Sacramento RepublicMonterey Bay
44.4Attack35.0
70.4Defence40.0
50.0Form25.0
55.6Power35.6
1.82xG0.54
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