GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 8/16/2026, 3:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sacramento Republic · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Mediumconfidence

Sacramento Republic are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lexington are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 55.6 against 54.8. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the USL Championship, while Sacramento Republic holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Sacramento Republic

Probability

41.9%

Model confidence

14.8%

Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sacramento RepublicDLWWD

GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LexingtonWWDWL

GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Sacramento RepublicLexington
44.4Attack51.9
70.4Defence59.3
50.0Form51.9
55.6Power54.8
1.16xG0.84
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