Sacramento Republicvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 8/16/2026, 3:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sacramento Republic · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sacramento Republic are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lexington are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 55.6 against 54.8. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the USL Championship, while Sacramento Republic holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sacramento Republic
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
14.8%
Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20