Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rotherham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Rotherham are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Derby are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Rotherham hold a 21.5-point power-rating edge (65.8 v 44.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Rotherham holds the strongest overall chance at 76% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rotherham
Probability
76.4%
Model confidence
9.2%
Rotherham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40