Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Roskilde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Roskilde are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Naestved are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Roskilde hold a 5.8-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 59.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the 2. Division, while Roskilde holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Roskilde
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Roskilde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40