Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bastia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rodez are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Bastia are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bastia hold a 17.1-point power-rating edge (48.6 v 65.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Bastia holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bastia
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Bastia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40