Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rive · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rive are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Tupy are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Rive hold a 21.1-point power-rating edge (62.3 v 41.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.8% in the Capixaba B, while Rive holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rive
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
11.8%
Rive has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80