Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tondela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rio Ave are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Tondela are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tondela hold a 25.4-point power-rating edge (34.5 v 59.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Tondela holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tondela
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Tondela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20