Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arouca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rio Ave are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Arouca are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Arouca hold a 7.6-point power-rating edge (34.5 v 42.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Arouca holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arouca
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Arouca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20