Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Riga are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tukums are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 45.5-point power-rating edge (83.5 v 38.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 87.6% in the Virsliga, while Riga holds the strongest overall chance at 88% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
87.6%
Model confidence
87.6%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80