Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Riga are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Grobiņa are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 51.0-point power-rating edge (83.5 v 32.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 91.3% in the Virsliga, while Riga holds the strongest overall chance at 91% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
91.3%
Model confidence
91.3%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 9 · avg 3.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40