Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caersws · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rhyl are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Caersws are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Caersws hold a 28.3-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the FAW Championship, while Caersws holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Caersws
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
12.3%
Caersws has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60