Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Rīgas FS are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Grobiņa are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Rīgas FS hold a 45.6-point power-rating edge (80.1 v 34.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.3% in the Virsliga, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 89% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
88.8%
Model confidence
17.3%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80