Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treze · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Retrô are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Treze are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Treze hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (46.1 v 57.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Serie D, while Treze holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Treze
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
13.7%
Treze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80