Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Luton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Reading are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Luton are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Luton hold a 7.0-point power-rating edge (48.4 v 55.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the League One, while Luton holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Luton
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
13.7%
Luton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00