Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ravshan are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Istiqlol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Istiqlol hold a 15.4-point power-rating edge (52.1 v 67.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 24.1% in the Vysshaya Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
24.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40