Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Quilmes are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while San Telmo are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Quilmes hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (49.6 v 43.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 31.6% in the Primera Nacional, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 12% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
31.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60