Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Qarabag are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Keshla FC are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 32.8-point power-rating edge (75.9 v 43.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.3% in the Premyer Liqa, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 77% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
76.5%
Model confidence
16.3%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20