Qarabagvs
CSKA Sofia
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 7/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Qarabag are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while CSKA Sofia are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 60.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.1% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00