GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 7/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Qarabag · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Qarabag are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while CSKA Sofia are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (71.2 v 60.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.1% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Qarabag

Probability

38.1%

Model confidence

38.1%

Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

QarabagWWLLW

GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
CSKA SofiaDWWWW

GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
QarabagCSKA Sofia
50.0Attack50.0
100.0Defence66.7
66.7Form61.1
71.2Power60.6
1.28xG1.06
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