Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Puebla · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Puebla are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Puebla hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Puebla holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Puebla
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Puebla has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00