Uruguay · Primera División · 8/16/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Maldonado · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Progreso are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Deportivo Maldonado are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Deportivo Maldonado hold a 25.9-point power-rating edge (36.0 v 61.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.9% in the Primera División, while Deportivo Maldonado holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Maldonado
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Deportivo Maldonado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20