ProgresovsClub Nacional

Progreso are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Club Nacional are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Club Nacional hold a 17.4-point power-rating edge (36.0 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.8% in the Primera División, while Club Nacional holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.