Porto BAvs
Real Noroeste
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie D · 5/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Porto BA are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Real Noroeste are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Real Noroeste hold a 4.9-point power-rating edge (34.8 v 39.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.6% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60