GGOALVIO

USA · NWSL Women · 5/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Portland Thorns W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Portland Thorns W are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Bay FC W are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDWLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Portland Thorns W hold a 12.5-point power-rating edge (54.6 v 42.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.2% in the NWSL Women, while Portland Thorns W holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Portland Thorns W

Probability

56.5%

Model confidence

12.2%

Portland Thorns W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Portland Thorns WDLWWW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Bay FC WDDWLL

GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Portland Thorns WBay FC W
56.1Attack35.1
50.9Defence52.6
54.4Form33.3
54.6Power42.1
1.78xG0.91
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