Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tamworth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Port Vale are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tamworth are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tamworth hold an 11.1-point power-rating edge (46.1 v 57.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Tamworth holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tamworth
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Tamworth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20