Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Popayan are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Orsomarso are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Orsomarso hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (42.7 v 47.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 28.1% in the Primera B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
28.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60