Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Popayan are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Leones FC are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Popayan hold a 4.4-point power-rating edge (42.7 v 38.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.6% in the Primera B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00