Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sousa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Pombal are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Sousa are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Sousa hold a 59.7-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 83.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Sousa holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sousa
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Sousa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80