Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Pobeda are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Izberbash are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Pobeda hold a 29.1-point power-rating edge (56.8 v 27.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.6% in the Second League - Group 1, while Pobeda holds the strongest overall chance at 85% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pobeda
Probability
85.1%
Model confidence
12.6%
Pobeda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80