Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Pobeda are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Druzhba are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Pobeda hold a 3.3-point power-rating edge (56.8 v 53.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.3% in the Second League - Group 1, while Pobeda holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pobeda
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
13.3%
Pobeda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20