Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Piratas are 0W-1D-0L in their last 1 (D), averaging 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded, while Monarcas are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 10.5-point power-rating edge (58.9 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
35.2%
Model confidence
35.2%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80