Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piauí · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Piauí are 1W-1D-2L in their last 4 (LDWL), averaging 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Altos are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Piauí hold a 15.4-point power-rating edge (56.3 v 41.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.5% in the Serie D, while Piauí holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Piauí
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Piauí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.25/1.50
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60