Phoenix Risingvs
Monterey Bay
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 7/19/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phoenix Rising · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Phoenix Rising are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Monterey Bay are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Phoenix Rising hold a 10.8-point power-rating edge (46.4 v 35.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.2% in the USL Championship, while Phoenix Rising holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Phoenix Rising
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Phoenix Rising has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20