Phoenix Risingvs
Louisville City
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 6/11/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phoenix Rising · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Phoenix Rising are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Louisville City are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Louisville City hold a 5.8-point power-rating edge (46.4 v 52.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.2% in the USL Championship, while Phoenix Rising holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Phoenix Rising
Probability
35.2%
Model confidence
35.2%
Phoenix Rising has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00