GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 7/22/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Philadelphia Union · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Philadelphia Union are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.60 conceded, while New York Red Bulls are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and New York Red Bulls hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (40.9 v 45.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.0% in the Major League Soccer, while Philadelphia Union holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 75% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Philadelphia Union

Probability

42.0%

Model confidence

42.0%

Philadelphia Union has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Philadelphia UnionLDLLD

GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
New York Red BullsWDWWL

GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls
46.3Attack53.7
38.9Defence27.8
29.6Form46.3
40.9Power45.0
2.13xG1.85
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