Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Petare FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Aragua FC are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Aragua FC hold a 6.5-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.5% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 18% BTTS chance and 9% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80