Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Petare FC are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Aragua FC are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Aragua FC hold a 6.5-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.6% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 18% BTTS chance and 9% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20