GGOALVIO

Indonesia · Piala Presiden · 8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Persebaya Surabaya · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

Persebaya Surabaya are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Arema FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Persebaya Surabaya hold a 29.1-point power-rating edge (75.5 v 46.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.6% in the Piala Presiden, while Persebaya Surabaya holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Persebaya Surabaya

Probability

47.6%

Model confidence

47.6%

Persebaya Surabaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Persebaya SurabayaWWWDD

GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Arema FCWWLLD

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Persebaya SurabayaArema FC
40.0Attack33.3
86.7Defence60.0
86.7Form40.0
75.5Power46.4
1.39xG0.77
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