Penarolvs
Defensor Sporting
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 5/4/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Penarol are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Defensor Sporting are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Penarol hold a 17.9-point power-rating edge (65.9 v 48.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 23.0% in the Primera División, while Penarol holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
23.0%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60