Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenix · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Paysandu are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Fenix are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Fenix hold a 13.4-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.4% in the Segunda División, while Fenix holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fenix
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Fenix has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40