Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paysandu · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Paysandu are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Barra are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Paysandu hold an 11.8-point power-rating edge (55.5 v 43.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.4% in the Serie C, while Paysandu holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Paysandu
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Paysandu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40