Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paysandu · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Paysandu are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Anápolis are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Paysandu hold a 13.7-point power-rating edge (55.5 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.1% in the Serie C, while Paysandu holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Paysandu
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Paysandu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80