Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Paulista are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Juventus are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Juventus hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 53.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 18.8% in the Copa Paulista, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
18.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40