Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paro · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Paro are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 5.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Thimphu are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Paro hold a 33.8-point power-rating edge (81.5 v 47.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 84.5% in the Premier League, while Paro holds the strongest overall chance at 85% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Paro
Probability
84.5%
Model confidence
84.5%
Paro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 25 · GA 2 · avg 5.00/0.40
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60