Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parnahyba · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Parnahyba are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Moto Club are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Parnahyba hold a 10.9-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 37.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.8% in the Serie D, while Parnahyba holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Parnahyba
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Parnahyba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20