Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Smiltene · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Parks are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Smiltene are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Smiltene hold a 36.8-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 52.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.0% in the Cup, while Smiltene holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 83% BTTS chance and 86% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Smiltene
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Smiltene has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00