Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paradiso · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Paradiso are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Mendrisio are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Paradiso hold a 46.0-point power-rating edge (88.7 v 42.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Paradiso holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Paradiso
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Paradiso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40