Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Palmeiras are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Santos are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 23.9-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.4% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 72% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
72.0%
Model confidence
14.4%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40