Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Palmeiras are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Gremio are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 20.4-point power-rating edge (67.7 v 47.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.0% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
62.0%
Model confidence
62.0%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00