Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lecce · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Palermo are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Lecce are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lecce hold a 24.2-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 47.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the Coppa Italia, while Lecce holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lecce
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
12.3%
Lecce has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20